Tony Fairfax talks to Alexander “The Engineer” Lim, host of AuthorStory by alvinwriter.com about his book, The Presidential Trend: The Remarkable Voting Predictability of the Office of President (Includes: 2016 Election Analysis).
“I was forced to, compelled, to come up with my own theory on this because no one had written about it.” ~Tony Fairfax, on writing The Presidential Trend
Tony’s interest in the presidential trend he writes about began when he read a census report that had a graph that led to his investigating the topic. The major trend he talks about is the increasingly linear trend of popular votes for the Democratic presidential candidate from 1972 to 2000, despite the voter turnout percentage differing from election to election, while during that period, the popular votes for the Republicans and independents combined fluctuated. Tony remarks that, after investigation, the trend actually began in 1968, when the electorate "fractured" between Democrats and non-Democrats, and that the trend makes sense when core base voters - voters who would vote Democrat, Republican or for their candidate, no matter what - are considered. This increasing linear trend, according to Tony, is due to the increasing population of Democratic core base voters and generational perpetuation of loyalty to the Democratic party.
In 1968, a certain section of Democratic voters peeled away from voting for a Democratic president, and this section never came back to vote for a Democratic candidate except during 1976, which is a year that doesn’t fit the 1972 - 2000 trend.
Tony notes that the linear trend might have stopped at 2000, but he says that there is still a trend in the form of the Democratic popular vote percentage, which deviates only around 2.6% from the trend line. The trends are more visible at the national level, and while these exist at the state and local levels, these aren’t as visible because people change locations, from city to city or from state to state, throughout the year. The Democrats, because they have most of the so-called minority vote, have an advantage in the coming decades because of the increasing percentage of the minority population in the United States.
To a Republican candidate, Tony would advise him or her to attract voters from the Democratic electorate, particularly given that the Democratic electorate is larger than the non-Democratic electorate. To a Democratic candidate, Tony would advise him to go after progressive policy issues.
Tony Fairfax’s book, The Presidential Trend: The Remarkable Voting Predictability of the Office of President (Includes: 2016 Election Analysis), can be found on amazon.com and other major online bookstores.
Purchase on Amazon: The Presidential Trend: The Remarkable Voting Predictability of the Office of the President (Includes: 2016 Election Analysis),